Offer Brief · offer evaluatorCareer IntelligenceFiled · Sep 14, 2026 · Confidential

Subject company

Eli Lilly and Company

Principal Medical Science Liaison · P4 · Indianapolis, IN

Take the offer seriously; negotiate from strength on equity and scope. Your base is already above the market anchor, so direct your leverage toward the RSU grant and clarify the bonus target, vesting structure, and refresh cadence before you sign.

Eli Lilly and Company: Strong trajectory — Rule of 40 94.2, 47.7% revenue growth (12 months to June 2026), stock +51% (12-month).

Base

$190K

Equity grant

$60K

Vest

4 yr · cliff 1

Offer vesting schedule

Market band · DOL H-1B / LCA

Medical Scientists · Eli Lilly and Company · Indiana

This offer’s base sits at the 89th percentile — near the top of the market band.

Role-specific match

P25

$86K$85,905

Median

$128K$128,125

P75

$153K$152,570

P90

$185K$185,400

Your base: $190,000 · $37,430 above the P75 mark — this band is a floor under you, not a ceiling

Source: DOL OFLC LCA disclosure data · n=9 certified filings · base cash only (excludes equity and bonus). Use as a citable market floor, not total compensation.

Only 9 certified LCA wage rows matched — treat the band as directional.

The return on this brief

$3K / yr recurring

$15K one-time

The negotiation room this brief is built to unlock — typically many multiples of its price. The lever-by-lever play is in the negotiation playbook below.

Strong

company trajectory · low confidence

One number that matters

$805K

5-year expected total comp (probability-weighted NPV)

bear

$757K

base

$790K

bull

$861K

What moves this number

Nominal (undiscounted) 5-year total under the base scenario: $1,035,000
Discount rate applied to every year: 10%
Annual target bonus: NOT PROVIDED at intake — every year below is base (plus signing and vesting equity) alone. No bonus was assumed.
Vesting over 3 years with 1-year cliff
Bear equity multiple: 0.4x
Base equity multiple: 1.5x
Bull equity multiple: 3.8x
Exit probabilities: bear 20%, base 50%, bull 30%

01 · Executive decision

What to do next

Start here. This section compresses the brief into the decision, the strongest reasons behind it, and the risks that deserve verification before you sign.

Why the verdict landed here

Base $190,000 sits at the 89th percentile of the base-cash market band (median $128,125).
Company operating quality is strong (Rule of 40: 94.2).
Base sits at the 89th percentile of the certified base-cash band for Indiana (n=9).
Growth-and-margin composite of 94 (47.7% revenue growth plus 46.5% FCF margin) — an adapted screen: the 40 threshold is a SaaS convention this company is read against, not a bar it was set.

Signals we only see when the data is connected

Four opportunistic insider sellers undercut the equity upside narrative: the RSU grant is priced against a stock that insiders are actively exiting

high

Leadership and stability + Offer economics · medium confidence · 2 source facts in the appendix

Score components

Org health · 36%95

Leadership · 21%71

no SEC graph — neutral prior

Strategy · 21%75

Alumni · 0%55

not weighted in this composite — no evidence to score it

Promotion · 0%55

not weighted in this composite — no evidence to score it

Skills · 14%55

no skills signal — neutral prior

Red flags · 7%58

Bar color: strong (65+) · moderate (45–64) · weak (<45)

Higher is healthier on every bar — including Red flags, where a high score means few were raised

55% of the design weighting is not evidence-backed — 30% was renormalized out of the composite entirely and 25% is still weighted but scored on a neutral prior. The percentages above are the weights this score was actually computed with.

Purchase your report to unlock full details

Live SEC filings, peer comp, scripts, provenance, and canonical synthesis — built for your company and offer.

Get the Offer Brief — $49 Compare both brief tiers

The decision rule

Accept-leaning

Derived from this brief’s own numbers — the band placement, company operating quality, and role exposure — not model judgment. The same rule fixes the verdict above.

Accept when

Comp is already placed above market — protect it; negotiate scope, level, or refresh terms instead of base.
The equity-weighted package (base plus equity plus signing) stays ≥ 1.5× the base-cash median (currently 2.1×).

Negotiate when

Equity is the swing factor — confirm the refresh policy and vest mechanics before relying on the headline number.

Walk away when

Verification surfaces a dealbreaker (the verification questions in the negotiation playbook) — scope, level, or team stability materially worse than represented.

Where people from here go next

Alumni outcomes require optional user-contributed career data and confidence thresholds.

02 · Offer economics

What the offer is really worth

This translates the package into realized value, equity risk, market benchmarks, and concrete negotiation room.

Headline package

$275K

base plus equity plus signing

After cliff year 1

$255K

Equity scenario spread

59.6%

Negotiation room

Base 5% / equity 15%

Market consensus

A compact read on whether public-market expectations support the equity story behind the offer.

Median target

$1K

DCF fair value

—

Revenue est. · FY2026

$88.2B

Total comp at three valuations

Your $190,000 base sits at the 89th percentile of the DOL H-1B/LCA band for this role at Lilly (median $128,125, n=9, directional), and the BLS OEWS Indiana median for Medical Scientists is $81,110 — both anchors confirm your base is well above public-market benchmarks, which means the productive negotiation surface is the $60,000 RSU grant, not base; at analyst consensus of $1,370/share, a base-case RSU scenario projects to $71,920 over the 3-year vest, and asking for a grant in the $70,000–$75,000 range is defensible given Lilly's 47.7% revenue growth (12 months to 2026-06-30) against a 10-peer Drug Manufacturers median of 6.5%, its 85.8% gross margin, and a Piotroski score of 8. Before finalizing, ask specifically about vesting cliff structure, whether equity refresh grants are made at this level and on what cadence, the annual bonus target percentage attached to P4, clawback and repayment terms on both the RSU grant and the $25,000 signing bonus, and how the merit-increase cycle interacts with the P4 band ceiling. Equity scenarios use rsu linear and show 59.6% spread across available public valuation anchors.

Evidence confidence: high

Highest leverage asks

Base sits at the 89th percentile — shift focus to equity: Your $190,000 base sits at the 89th percentile of the Indiana base-cash market band (median $128,125, n=9 LCA rows). That placement means base is largely optimized; the more productive negotiation target is the $60,000 RSU grant, where the spread between a bear scenario ($49,346 at a $940 share price) and a bull scenario ($78,744 at $1,500) is $29,398 — a gap wide enough to justify asking for a larger initial grant to cushion downside volatility. Ask whether the grant size is fixed at this level or whether there is room to increase it given the 36% annualized volatility in LLY shares.

Evidence confidence: medium

47.7% revenue growth justifies a stronger equity ask: Lilly's revenue grew 47.7% over the twelve months ending June 30, 2026 — against a peer-group median of 6.5% across 10 Drug Manufacturers - General peers carrying a derivable twelve-month growth figure. That gap is the clearest argument for why your RSU grant should reflect the company's trajectory rather than a static dollar figure set before the growth rate was known. Frame the ask as aligning your upside with the business momentum you are being hired to support, particularly given Lilly's stated strategic priority to broaden cardiometabolic impact — the exact therapeutic area an MSL role directly serves.

Evidence confidence: medium

Signing bonus is one-time — ask about annual bonus target: The $25,000 signing bonus is a single payment that disappears after year one; your headline package of $275,000 (base plus equity plus signing) drops to a modelled $255,000 once that component is consumed. The offer does not include a stated annual bonus target percentage, which is a material gap in understanding your recurring total compensation. Before accepting, ask what the target bonus percentage is for a P4 Principal MSL, how it is structured, and what the historical payout range has been — that figure could add meaningfully to or subtract meaningfully from your annualized economics.

Evidence confidence: medium

Executive compensation context

Lilly's FY2025 DEF 14A shows CEO David Ricks at $36.7M total (base $1.7M, stock awards $23.3M, incentive plan $6.5M) and CSO Daniel Skovronsky at $17.8M — in both cases, stock awards constitute the dominant component, running at roughly 60–65% of total reported pay, with zero option awards across all five named executives, confirming an RSU-only equity structure at the senior level that is consistent with your grant format.

From proxy-statement compensation records.

Insider exercise pattern

In the trailing 90 days, 3 distinct insiders executed 3 open-market sell trades totaling 13,500 shares (~$15.96M) with 0 open-market buys — a sustained-selling pattern of moderate signal strength; separately, several board members received equity awards classified as option_exercise_hold or 10b5-1_scheduled, which are non-discretionary and carry no directional read on management conviction.

Pattern read derived from Form 4 filing data.

Comp waterfall

What it shows

Headline package versus the modeled value after the first vesting cliff.

Why it matters

It separates advertised compensation from what is actually exposed to vesting timing.

How to use it

Anchor negotiation around the gap between headline value and first-year realized value.

Equity scenarios

bear

$49K

base

$72K

bull

$79K

Cliff risk: leave before the first vesting cliff and realized equity is $0 — the bear case is not the floor. Weigh signing cash accordingly.

What it shows

Bear, base, and bull public-market anchors for the equity grant.

Why it matters

RSU value is not fixed. A strong offer can still carry material downside if the stock resets.

How to use it

Ask for equity refresh protection, a higher grant, or signing cash if downside exposure is high.

External comp benchmarks

Directional public-market anchors — not company-specific exec comp or your offer.

DOL H-1B / LCA · employer + state

Eli Lilly and Company · n=9 · offer at 89th pctRole-specific match

P10: $83,000
P25: $85,905
Median: $128,125
P75: $152,570
P90: $185,400

Base cash only (year) — excludes equity and bonus.

Only 9 certified LCA wage rows matched — treat the band as directional.

BLS OEWS floor — Medical Scientists, Indiana (state OEWS) (2025): median $81,110. Government survey median; a conservative floor, not the role-and-metro market the band above reflects.

Peer tickers are selected from public market data and filings — use as directional context, not a compensation survey.

Not available for this run: next earnings date. Every stream we checked — rendered, held, or absent — is itemized in the appendix coverage matrix.

Sponsorship posture · federal petition outcomes

Growing — new sponsored-hire approvals rose in the latest complete fiscal year. Denial rate across the window: 0%. Still actively attesting: 75 certified LCA filings in FY2026 — the freshest read on sponsorship intent, ahead of the slower petition record.

FY2020: 26 new · 14 renewalsFY2021: 41 new · 53 renewalsFY2022: 58 new · 57 renewalsFY2023 (prelim.): 4 new · 30 renewals

Petition approvals from the federal record — counts of approvals, not people; one person can hold multiple petitions across years. LCA filings are attestations, not hires. A fiscal year marked “prelim.” is still being published by USCIS and is left out of the trend. Read the trend, not the absolute size.

Benefits · DOL Form 5500 · FY2024

This employer sponsors a 401(k) plan in the federal benefit-plan record. Headcount and the match below read from its retirement plan on file — THE LILLY EMPLOYEE 401(K) PLAN.

Active plan participants: 21,803Employer contributions (the match): $173MEmployer 401(k) contributions per participant: $8K/yrParticipant deferrals: $319MBenefit plans filed: 4

Audited DOL Form 5500 filings for FY2024, which lag the calendar by roughly one to two years. Counts are PLAN PARTICIPANTS — covered employees plus separated staff still holding a balance — not a headcount, and are read from the single representative retirement plan, never summed across a sponsor’s plans. Employer contributions are the plan’s Schedule H line 2a (the match); a blank contribution line means it was not disclosed at this grain, not that it was zero. The absence of a line is never the absence of the benefit. Per-participant is employer 401(k) contributions divided by active participants for the latest filed year — a plan-wide average, not your match. What lands in your account depends on the plan formula, your own deferral rate and your salary; ask for the contribution schedule.

03 · Company quality

Whether the company can support the promise

This is the company-health read behind the offer: growth quality, operating discipline, market risk, and whether the financial base supports the compensation ask.

Rule of 40

94.2

Revenue growth

47.7%

Gross margin

85.8%

Revenue / employee

$1.59M

Trailing twelve months ÷ latest reported headcount.

Revenue mix

Product

93.5%

Collaboration And Other Revenue

6.5%

Latest reported segmentation, FY2025 · USD.

Where geographic revenue comes from

UNITED STATES

66.7%

Europe

17.7%

Non-US

9.3%

Latest reported segmentation, FY2025 · USD.

Financial score read

Quality label

Healthy

Altman Z

7.6

Piotroski

Scores are treated as a screening signal only; they support, not replace, the operating metrics above.

Recent events that change the read

Stock News · Sep 14, 2026

Eli Lilly Fell Like a Rock Over the Last Month: This Big Bank Expects 45% Returns Over The Next Twelve

Stock News · Sep 14, 2026

People are taking bootleg versions of an Eli Lilly drug that isn't approved yet. Ohio wants it to stop.

Stock News · Sep 14, 2026

Novartis Just Shook Up a Multibillion-Dollar Drug Race. What It Means for Eli Lilly Stock.

Source feeds are filtered to a short materiality read; the brief avoids raw news-feed dumps.

Strategic coherence

75/100

Strong

This connects transcript strategy, operating metrics, and offer timing. A coherent company story strengthens equity confidence; drift or mixed messaging shifts emphasis toward cash certainty and explicit role scope.

Growth quality

Lilly's revenue grew 47.7% year-over-year (measured June 2025 to June 2026), driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound volume, and the company raised full-year 2026 guidance to $85–87 billion after Q2 results beat expectations — a business operating at a scale and velocity that makes the $60,000 RSU grant in your offer look modest relative to the platform you'd be joining. No WARN notices, no layoffs, and no workforce reductions appear in the last 24 months; headcount has grown from 39,000 (end of 2023) to 50,000 (end of 2025), and active hiring continued through mid-2026 — the employment backdrop for this role is as stable as any in large-cap pharma.

Evidence confidence: medium

Rule of 40

Rule of 40 score 94 — revenue growth 47.7% plus FCF margin 46.5%.

Evidence confidence: high

Stock volatility and drawdown

Annualized volatility 36%; max 12-month drawdown -23.3%; current drawdown -10.7%.

Evidence confidence: high

Strategic coherence

Strategic coherence: 75/100 (Strong). The strategic narrative shows a consistent focus on pipeline advancement, market expansion, and investment in new technologies, with some emerging themes in consumer awareness and sustainability. However, risks related to pricing and market competition are noted, indicating areas for caution.

Evidence confidence: high

Consistent themes across quarters: Pipeline Advancement, Market Expansion.

Evidence confidence: high

Newly appeared themes: AI Investment, Access to Medicines, Consumer Awareness, Sustainability Commitment.

Evidence confidence: medium

The focus on pipeline advancement and new market strategies suggests growth opportunities, but attention to pricing pressures and competition is necessary.

Evidence confidence: high

Lobbying exposure

Reported lobbying spend of $15.94M across 53 LDA/SOPR filings (24 months). Primary issue codes: HCR (37), MMM (25), TRD (16), PHA (15), CPT (8).

Evidence confidence: medium

Influence & federal exposure (LDA/SOPR · USAspending)

Reported lobbying spend of $15.94M across 53 LDA/SOPR filings (24 months). Primary issue codes: HCR (37), MMM (25), TRD (16), PHA (15), CPT (8).
$0.28M in federal obligations across 2 USAspending awards (24 months). Largest agencies: Department of Veterans Affairs ($0.28M).

In their own words

Verbatim from the latest earnings call — management’s stated risks and investment priorities, unedited.

“We expect regulatory action later this year.”

Stated risk · Regulatory Approval Delays

“We see that those patients are actually naive to treatment with incretin and patients are titrating up steadily.”

Stated risk · Market Competition

“We remain focused on executing the 3 components of our strategy to deliver sustained long-term growth, broaden our impact on cardiometabolic health.”

Investment priority · Cardiometabolic Health

“We believe Jaypirca has the potential to be a foundational therapy across multiple settings and regimens within CLL.”

Investment priority · Oncology

Rule of 40

94.2Rule of 40 · adapted screen

Healthy · ≥ 40

040 line110

Revenue growth

+47.7%

FCF margin

+46.5%

Growth plus margin clears the 40 line — the company is growing with discipline, not buying growth with weak margins. That strengthens the case for equity.

Adapted screen: the growth-plus-margin composite reads across sectors, but the 40 threshold was set for software. Read the two components and the trend, not the pass/fail.

What it shows

Revenue growth and free-cash-flow margin combined into an operating-quality score.

Why it matters

It gives a quick read on whether growth is disciplined or being bought with weak margins.

How to use it

Use a strong score as support for a stronger equity or refresh ask.

Cash runway

Profitable or cash-generating — runway gauge not applicable

What it shows

How many quarters of cash coverage the company appears to have.

Why it matters

Cash stress changes negotiation posture and role risk.

How to use it

If runway is thin, prefer cash/signing certainty over back-loaded equity.

Revenue per employee

TTM$1593K

What it shows

Trailing-twelve-month revenue divided by the latest reported headcount.

Why it matters

High productivity supports premium compensation; weak productivity can foreshadow cost pressure.

How to use it

Use strong productivity as support for a strategic-hire compensation argument.

Analyst targets versus price

What it shows

Current price against low, median, and high analyst target anchors.

Why it matters

It frames whether the market already prices in most of the upside.

How to use it

Use wide dispersion as a reason to derisk vesting or ask for more shares.

Market cap trend

What it shows

Recent company valuation trend from public market data.

Why it matters

It contextualizes equity timing and whether the offer arrives after a run-up or reset.

How to use it

Pair this with stock-risk metrics before accepting equity-heavy compensation.

04 · Role and career risk

What could make this role better or worse than it looks

This section turns leadership, insider, board, and market signals into career-risk context for the role you are considering — and carries the forward scenarios: the base case and the three forks this offer can take.

Is your role exposed

Confidence: low

low exposure

0 = insulated · 100 = high · a separate read from company health

Your role looks well-insulated on the public signals available.

▼ lowers

Revenue trend (segment proxy)

Company revenue is up 80.5% first-to-last across 6 available quarters (Q1 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026), a 15-month span, not a year-over-year rate, which lowers role exposure at the company level.

Workplace-safety posture (U.S. OSHA)

U.S. OSHA inspection and citation history, matched to this employer by establishment name and aggregated. Most relevant for on-site, warehouse, or operational roles; a clean or empty record is common for office employers and is not a guarantee.

12 U.S. OSHA inspections on record across 2 states (most recent 2007-01-25).
2 citations, $1,620 in penalties.

Public records checked this run

Litigation (public court records)
None in the record
Wage enforcement (U.S. DOL WHD)
None in the record
Workplace safety (U.S. OSHA)
On file — see detail above
DOL debarment
None in the record

Limitations

No Item 2.05 restructuring 8-Ks matched this employer in the lookback window.
No WARN notices matched (coverage is strongest in CA and NY).
No public ATS board is mapped for this employer, so hiring velocity is unavailable.
Public court-records lookup degraded this run — litigation posture may be incomplete.
Segment-level revenue is rarely disclosed; the revenue signal uses the company total as a proxy.

Stock volatility

36%

Current drawdown

-10.7%

Insider pattern

Sustained Selling

Directors on record

C-suite tenure dashboard

Leadership graph (resolved): Carolyn R. Bertozzi — Board Member (appointed 2025-12-08); Patrik Jonsson — Executive Vice President and President, Lilly International (since 2025); Ilya Yuffa — Executive Vice President and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities (since 2025); Kenneth Custer, Ph.D. — Executive Vice President and President, Lilly Cardiometabolic Health (since 2025); Carole Ho — Executive Vice President and President, Lilly Neuroscience (since 2025); Daniel Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D. — Executive Vice President, Chief Scientific and Product Officer and President, Lilly Research Laboratories (since 2025); Jacob Van Naarden — Executive Vice President, President, Lilly Oncology and Head of Corporate Business Development (since 2025); Adrienne Brown — Executive Vice President and President, Lilly Immunology (since 2025); Melissa Seymour — Executive Vice President, Global Quality (since 2024); Lucas Montarce — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (since 2024); Eric Dozier — Executive Vice President & Chief People Officer (since 2022); Diogo Rau — Executive Vice President and Chief Information and Digital Officer (since 2021)

Evidence confidence: medium

8-K transition scan is stale; absence of transitions should not be interpreted as stability.

Insider trading intelligence

Of 100 Form 4 rows pulled for this issuer, 7 moved shares out in the trailing 90 days (open-market sales, tax withholding on vests, and gifts), of which 3 were open-market sale rows and 0 were open-market purchases. The 3 open-market sale rows are per-price fills of 3 sale trades by 3 distinct sellers — 13,500 shares ≈ $15.96M in total — a Form 4 reports one sale as multiple execution-price rows, so the trade count is the count of decisions. 11 filings carry a per-trade classification — a count of FILINGS over a different window, not a subset of the row counts above.

Evidence confidence: high

Seymour Melissa: opportunistic_sell (negative).

Evidence confidence: medium

Hakim Anat: opportunistic_sell (negative).

Evidence confidence: medium

Zakrowski Donald A: opportunistic_sell (negative).

Evidence confidence: medium

Jonsson Patrik: opportunistic_sell (negative).

Evidence confidence: medium

Alvarez Ralph: 10b5-1_scheduled (positive).

Evidence confidence: medium

If you regret this in 18 months

The most likely way this goes wrong is that employer coverage restrictions on GLP-1 drugs — already signaled by large U.S. employers planning to drop or limit Mounjaro and Zepbound coverage starting 2027 — materialize faster and more broadly than Lilly anticipated, causing the company to restructure its incretin MSL field force before the RSU grant has had time to deliver meaningful value. As a remote Principal MSL whose territory and account structure were never specified in the offer, you have no visibility into how quickly headcount rationalization could reach your therapeutic area; the AtaiBeckley and Merida Bioscience acquisitions add pipeline complexity that may shift MSL deployment priorities toward newly integrated assets rather than the incretin franchise you were hired to support. Your signing bonus was provided at intake and is on file.

Evidence confidence: medium

Early warning signals

Lilly's Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 earnings call language shifts from 'volume growth' to 'access headwinds' or 'coverage mix pressure' for Mounjaro and Zepbound — a concrete signal that employer benefit exclusions are hitting the revenue line and that MSL field priorities will be repriced.

Evidence confidence: medium

A second wave of named insiders — beyond the four opportunistic sellers already recorded (Seymour, Hakim, Zakrowski, Jonsson) — executes open-market sell trades in the 90 days following your start date, with no offsetting open-market buys from the board or C-suite, indicating that the insider sentiment pattern is broadening rather than normalizing.

Evidence confidence: medium

Base case

Your $190,000 base sits at the 89th percentile of the Indiana base-cash market band (median $128,125, n=9), giving you a position of genuine strength before a single dollar of equity or signing is counted. The headline package of $275,000 — base plus equity plus signing — is 2.1× that base-cash median, though the band excludes equity and bonus, so the multiple reflects the full structure of your offer against a cash-only comparator. Lilly's underlying business reinforces the equity component: 47.7% revenue growth over the twelve months ending June 2026, a 46.5% FCF margin, and a Piotroski score of 8 place it well above the 6.5% median revenue growth of its ten Drug Manufacturers – General peers, making the $60,000 RSU grant a stake in a demonstrably high-velocity platform.

Evidence confidence: medium

Reference class

No public reference class beyond market-data peers and SEC leadership transitions.

Evidence confidence: low — read the specifics as directional, not verified

Three forks

The three ways this role can go from here — the downside path, the base case, and the upside. Each fork carries a signal of its own direction or says plainly that none was extracted; a fork never borrows the nearest available sentence.

Bear

No downside-direction signal was extracted for this brief.

Base

No base-direction signal was extracted for this brief.

Bull

No upside-direction signal was extracted for this brief.

Leadership tape

Source-backed leadership facts are used conservatively; unresolved or sparse records are omitted from user-facing claims.

Carolyn R. Bertozzi
2025-12-08
hire: role → Board Member
“elected Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D as a new member of the Board, effective December 8, 2025”

Coverage note

Leadership

Ready

Board

Ready

8-K scan

Stale

8-K transition scan is stale; absence of transitions should not be interpreted as stability.

C-suite tenure

Dated appointments from SEC filings — earliest first. Officers without a filed start date are not shown, a start we could only date to a YEAR is shown as that year, and a seat length is computed only where the filing states when the role began. Rows marked “appointed” carry a transition-filing date, which dates the filing rather than the tenure. Where the filing does not say what its date is a date of, the officer is omitted rather than shown under a verb the record does not support.

Diogo Rau

Executive Vice President and Chief Information and Digital Officer

since 2021 · 5y

Eric Dozier

Executive Vice President & Chief People Officer

since 2022 · 4y

Melissa Seymour

Executive Vice President, Global Quality

since 2024 · 2y

Lucas Montarce

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

since 2024 · 2y

Patrik Jonsson

Executive Vice President and President, Lilly International

since 2025 · 1y

Ilya Yuffa

Executive Vice President and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities

since 2025 · 1y

Kenneth Custer, Ph.D.

Executive Vice President and President, Lilly Cardiometabolic Health

since 2025 · 1y

Carole Ho

Executive Vice President and President, Lilly Neuroscience

since 2025 · 1y

Insider intensity

What it shows

Form 4 buy/sell activity summarized by month.

Why it matters

Heavy selling does not automatically mean distress, but it changes how much equity risk you should accept.

How to use it

Use sustained selling as support for vest protection or more cash.

Institutional ownership

13F institutional ownership86.8%

4,518 institutional holders (latest 13F)

What it shows

How much of the float sits with institutions, and across how many holders.

Why it matters

Ownership mix can amplify volatility and market sensitivity.

How to use it

Treat concentrated ownership as another reason to stress-test equity-heavy offers.

Not available for this run: board interlocks and largest-holder position sizes. Every stream we checked — rendered, held, or absent — is itemized in the appendix coverage matrix.

05 · Employer durability

Employer durability versus peers

How this company's financial health reads against its public peers — every company scored on the identical rubric, from its own filings. This is a durability comparison, not a list of jobs you could take instead.

Financial health, one rubric

Every company below is scored by the same rule — Rule of 40, revenue growth, cash runway — from its own filings. No cross-company guessing.

LLY

ABBV

Rule of 40 basis: revenue growth over the 12.0 months from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30 plus FCF margin for the period ending 2026-06-30.

AMGN

Rule of 40 basis: revenue growth over the 12.0 months from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30 plus FCF margin for the period ending 2026-06-30.

AZN

Rule of 40 basis: revenue growth over the 12.0 months from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30 plus FCF margin for the period ending 2026-06-30.

GILD

Rule of 40 basis: revenue growth over the 12.0 months from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30 plus FCF margin for the period ending 2026-06-30.

Peer universe: 10 vendor-listed candidates examined · 10 qualifying Drug Manufacturers - General peers · the first 4 shown below, in the vendor's order · every median on this panel is computed over all 10 qualifying peers, not only the 4 displayed.

Peer companies

Financial health on one rubric: LLY scores 95; peers — GILD 75, AMGN 71, ABBV 59, AZN 55; peer median 60 across all 10 scored peers, of which 4 are listed here.

Evidence confidence: medium

Financial-health axis only — leadership, career, and role factors are not honestly comparable across companies from public filings alone.

Promotion and tenure reference class

No user-contributed tenure aggregate has passed k-anonymity for this company yet.

Evidence confidence: low — read the specifics as directional, not verified

06 · Negotiation playbook

How to use the brief in the conversation

This is the action layer: the asks to prioritize, the scripts to use, the questions to ask, and the dealbreakers to monitor.

How to negotiate this

Your base at $190,000 is already well above the Indiana market anchor, so the counter here is narrow and targeted: one ask on equity, one ask on signing, and two non-dollar questions that could materially change the economics of year one and beyond. The headline package of $275,000 (base plus equity plus signing) is 2.1× the base-cash median — you are negotiating from a position of genuine strength, not desperation. Lead with enthusiasm for the role, then make a single, specific ask: bring the RSU grant from $60,000 to $69,000, and raise the signing bonus from $25,000 to $40,000.

What you're asking for

$3K / yr

One-time bridge (signing)

$15K

Your counter, lever by lever

Base salary

non-cash lever

Base is held at $190,000 — there is no ask on this lever. At the 89th percentile of the Indiana base-cash band (median $128,125), pushing base would be the least efficient use of your one counter. The recurring annual uplift if the equity ask lands is $3,000; the productive energy goes to equity, signing, and the non-dollar questions that clarify the full recurring package.

hold — base is already placed above the market anchor; press scope, level and equity refresh instead

Equity grant

$60K → $69K (floor $60K)

The $60,000 RSU grant is the most productive lever available. Under a base-case analyst price target, the grant projects to $71,920; under the bear case it compresses to $49,346 — a $10,654 reduction from grant-date value on 36% annualized volatility. Asking to move the grant to $69,000 (floor $60,000) is a $9,000 ask that partially offsets that downside risk and better reflects the company's 47.7% revenue growth over the twelve months ending June 30, 2026, against a peer-group median of 6.5% across 10 Drug Manufacturers - General peers. The equity ask is also the right place to spend your negotiating energy because base is already at the 89th percentile of the Indiana base-cash band (median $128,125, n=9 LCA rows) — pressing base would be pushing against the market, pressing equity is pushing with the company's own trajectory.

computed equity room

Signing bonus

$25K → $40K (floor $25K)

The $25,000 signing bonus is a one-time bridge that disappears after year one, dropping the modelled recurring package from $275,000 to $255,000. Asking to move it to $40,000 (floor $25,000) is a $15,000 increment — low-friction for the company because it is a single payment with no ongoing payroll cost, and it compensates for the gap between your October 1 start date and the point at which your first RSU tranche vests. The ask is especially credible because base is not being pushed: the company is not being asked to reprice a salary band, only to adjust a one-time onboarding cost.

low-friction one-time ask, added to the signing already offered, when base is already at market

Scope, title & level

non-cash lever

The non-dollar scope asks here carry real economic weight. The offer does not include a stated annual bonus target percentage — that figure is missing from the terms collected, and until it exists, the recurring annual economics of this role are incomplete. Ask what the P4 Principal MSL bonus target is and how it has actually paid out over the last two years. Separately, ask what change-of-control acceleration applies to unvested RSUs — single-trigger, double-trigger, or none — and request the plan document rather than a verbal summary. Both questions are non-adversarial and signal that you are thinking like a long-term employee, not a short-term negotiator. Also ask when the first RSU tranche vests and whether annual refresh grants are offered at the P4 level, given that the vesting cliff and refresh cadence were not included in the offer terms.

non-cash lever: leveling, scope, and equity-refresh cadence

Scripts

Written to be sent as they are. Edit any of them before you copy.

Counter Offer — RSU Grant and Signing BonusEmail

Hi [Recruiter name], Thank you so much for the offer — I'm genuinely excited about this role and the work Lilly is doing, particularly in cardiometabolic health. I've had a chance to review everything carefully, and I want to be straightforward with you about where I'd love to land. I'm not asking to move the base — I think it reflects the role well. What I'd like to explore is the RSU grant. Given the scope of the Principal MSL position and the real variability that comes with equity at this price point, I'd love to see the grant come up to $69,000. That's the one number I'm focused on. I'd also ask whether there's flexibility to bring the signing bonus to $40,000. I know it's a one-time cost for Lilly, and it would go a long way toward bridging the gap before my first equity vests. A couple of questions I want to make sure I understand before I sign: What's the annual bonus target percentage at the P4 level, and what has the actual payout looked like over the last two years? And on the equity side, what does the vesting schedule look like — specifically when the first tranche vests — and is there an annual refresh grant at this level? I want to make this work. Is there flexibility on the grant and the signing? Thank you, [Your name]

Hi [Recruiter name],

Thank you so much for the offer — I'm genuinely excited about this role and the work Lilly is doing, particularly in cardiometabolic health. I've had a chance to review everything carefully, and I want to be straightforward with you about where I'd love to land.

I'm not asking to move the base — I think it reflects the role well. What I'd like to explore is the RSU grant. Given the scope of the Principal MSL position and the real variability that comes with equity at this price point, I'd love to see the grant come up to $69,000. That's the one number I'm focused on.

I'd also ask whether there's flexibility to bring the signing bonus to $40,000. I know it's a one-time cost for Lilly, and it would go a long way toward bridging the gap before my first equity vests.

A couple of questions I want to make sure I understand before I sign: What's the annual bonus target percentage at the P4 level, and what has the actual payout looked like over the last two years? And on the equity side, what does the vesting schedule look like — specifically when the first tranche vests — and is there an annual refresh grant at this level?

I want to make this work. Is there flexibility on the grant and the signing?

Thank you,
[Your name]

Editable — tweak before you send

Phone Counter — Single Ask, Warm CloseSay this

I really appreciate the offer, and I want to be clear — I'm excited about this role and I want to join Lilly. I've thought carefully about the package, and I'm not looking to renegotiate everything. There's really one thing I'd like to ask about: the RSU grant. I'd love to see it come up to $69,000. That's my ask. The base feels right, and I understand the signing bonus is already generous — but if there's any room on the equity, that's where it would mean the most to me. Is there flexibility there?

Editable — tweak before you send

Best and Final — Holding at $69,000 GrantEmail

Hi [Recruiter name], I appreciate you going back to the team on this. I want to keep it simple: I'm ready to sign if we can get the RSU grant to $69,000. That's the number I need to feel fully confident moving forward, and I'm not asking for anything else to change. I'm genuinely enthusiastic about the work and the team, and I'd love to get this closed. Can we make $69,000 on the grant work? Thank you, [Your name]

Editable — tweak before you send

Competing Offer — Conditional FrameSay this

Editable — tweak before you send

When they push back

“The base is already at the top of our band for this level.”
I completely understand, and honestly I'm not asking to move the base — I think it's fair. My ask is entirely on the equity side. I'd like to see the RSU grant come up to $69,000. That's where I'm focused.
“The RSU grant is set by our compensation framework and isn't flexible.”
That's helpful to know. Can you tell me whether there's any flexibility on the signing bonus, then? Moving that to $40,000 would be meaningful to me, and I know it's a one-time cost rather than a structural change to the comp framework.
“We don't typically negotiate equity at this level.”
I appreciate you being direct. Can I ask — is there a process for exceptions, or is this something the hiring manager has any input on? I want to find a path forward, and I'm open to understanding how the flexibility works here.
“The signing bonus we've offered is already above what we normally do.”
I hear you, and I'm grateful for it. If the signing is at its ceiling, then let me come back to the equity — I'd really like to find a way to get the RSU grant to $69,000. That's the one place where I think there's a real conversation to be had.
“We need an answer by end of week — can you commit now?”
I want to say yes, and I'm very close. The one thing that would let me commit right now is getting clarity on the RSU grant — if we can confirm $69,000, I'm ready to sign today. Can you check on that one number before the deadline?

Walk-away line

“I've genuinely valued this process and I have a lot of respect for the team — if the package isn't able to move on the equity grant, I understand, and I hope we can stay in touch as things evolve.”

Targets are computed from your offer and a 5% base / 15% equity negotiation-room estimate, anchored to the DOL LCA market band for Indiana, where your base sits at roughly the 89th percentile. Base is held, not pushed: the deterministic market read places it above the anchor, so the uplift below comes from the levers that remain. They are derived deterministically, not written by the model.

Who to talk to — and in what order

Comp lives with different people than you think. Aim each ask at the person who can actually move it.

Recruiter

Owns the offer number and can move base / signing within a set band.

Your first channel. Make the case here: give them the market floor and one clear, specific ask. Stay warm — they're your messenger, not your obstacle.

Hiring manager

Owns level, scope, and the business case for hiring you.

Your advocate. Loop them in for a level bump, equity, or when the recruiter says the band is fixed — they can request an exception the recruiter can't.

Compensation team

Sets the salary bands; rarely negotiates with you directly.

You almost never talk to them. But the hiring manager can push an out-of-band exception up to them — which is why winning the manager matters.

When they say “this is our final offer”

01
“Final” is usually a close, not a wall. Stay gracious, restate your value in one line, and make a single specific, justified ask — not a list.
02
If base is capped, trade levers: pivot to a signing bonus, an equity refresh, an accelerated first review, or a title/level adjustment.
03
Only invoke a deadline or competing interest if it's real. A bluff that gets called costs you leverage and goodwill.
04
Give them an easy yes: name the one thing that turns a maybe into a signature today.

Say this

“I really want to make this work — I’m ready to sign. The one thing that would let me say yes today is [specific ask]. Is there any room there?”

Base sits at the 89th percentile — shift focus to equity

Your $190,000 base sits at the 89th percentile of the Indiana base-cash market band (median $128,125, n=9 LCA rows). That placement means base is largely optimized; the more productive negotiation target is the $60,000 RSU grant, where the spread between a bear scenario ($49,346 at a $940 share price) and a bull scenario ($78,744 at $1,500) is $29,398 — a gap wide enough to justify asking for a larger initial grant to cushion downside volatility. Ask whether the grant size is fixed at this level or whether there is room to increase it given the 36% annualized volatility in LLY shares.

Evidence anchor: COMP PLACEMENT (authoritative band); COMPUTED METRICS (equity scenarios, volatility)

47.7% revenue growth justifies a stronger equity ask

Lilly's revenue grew 47.7% over the twelve months ending June 30, 2026 — against a peer-group median of 6.5% across 10 Drug Manufacturers - General peers carrying a derivable twelve-month growth figure. That gap is the clearest argument for why your RSU grant should reflect the company's trajectory rather than a static dollar figure set before the growth rate was known. Frame the ask as aligning your upside with the business momentum you are being hired to support, particularly given Lilly's stated strategic priority to broaden cardiometabolic impact — the exact therapeutic area an MSL role directly serves.

Evidence anchor: COMPUTED METRICS (revenue growth YoY, peer median); EARNINGS STRUCTURED (strategic priorities)

Signing bonus is one-time — ask about annual bonus target

The $25,000 signing bonus is a single payment that disappears after year one; your headline package of $275,000 (base plus equity plus signing) drops to a modelled $255,000 once that component is consumed. The offer does not include a stated annual bonus target percentage, which is a material gap in understanding your recurring total compensation. Before accepting, ask what the target bonus percentage is for a P4 Principal MSL, how it is structured, and what the historical payout range has been — that figure could add meaningfully to or subtract meaningfully from your annualized economics.

Evidence anchor: KNOWN OFFER TERMS (signing bonus, no bonus target collected); COMPUTED METRICS (comp headline, year-1 projection)

Lilly's 401(k) match structure warrants a direct question

The Lilly Employee 401(k) Plan reported $173M in employer contributions across 21,803 active plan participants in the 2024 Form 5500 filing — a plan-wide average of $7,928 per participant per year. That figure is a plan-wide average, not your personal match, and the actual formula for your contribution tier is worth confirming explicitly. If the match formula is tiered by contribution rate or salary band, understanding where a $190,000 base lands in that structure affects your net retirement economics. Ask the recruiter to walk through the match formula and any waiting period before it applies.

Evidence anchor: BENEFITS (DOL Form 5500, filing year 2024 — The Lilly Employee 401(k) Plan)

Equity refresh cadence and vesting cliff are unconfirmed — ask both

The offer specifies a 3-year RSU vesting term, but neither the cliff schedule nor any equity refresh cadence has been collected. These two terms can shift the real value of the $60,000 grant substantially: a longer cliff delays your first liquidity event, and the absence of a refresh commitment means your equity exposure may not be replenished as Lilly's pipeline — now expanding into neuroscience (AtaiBeckley acquisition completed September 11, 2026) and immunology (Merida Biosciences acquisition announced August 31, 2026) — continues to grow. Ask specifically: when does the first tranche vest, and does Lilly offer annual refresh grants at the P4 level?

Evidence anchor: KNOWN OFFER TERMS (vesting term 3y; cliff/refresh not collected); PRESS RELEASES (AtaiBeckley, Merida acquisitions)

Questions they cannot fake

1
What is the annual target bonus percentage for a P4 Principal MSL, and what did the bonus actually pay out at — as a percentage of target — for fiscal years 2024 and 2025?
Your offer letter carries a $190,000 base but no bonus target, so the headline package of $275,000 (base plus equity plus signing) is the floor, not the ceiling. At Lilly, the FY2025 proxy shows named executives receiving incentive plan payouts ranging from roughly 218% of base salary (Hakim, Montarce) to 383% (Ricks) — all well above a nominal target — which tells you the plan can pay generously but says nothing about the P4 band. Until you have the actual target percentage and two years of realized payout history, you cannot model what your total cash looks like in a normal year versus a strong one. That number belongs in your negotiation before you sign.
2
What vesting cliff applies to the $60,000 RSU grant — is there a one-year cliff before any shares deliver, and if so, what happens to unvested equity if the role is eliminated or the position is restructured before that date?
The offer specifies a three-year vest on $60,000 in RSUs, but the cliff schedule, clawback terms, and any repayment window were not collected in the offer materials. At LLY's current price of $1,142.94, the bear-case scenario on that grant values it at $49,346 (at the analyst low of $940) and the base case at $71,920 (at the analyst median of $1,370) — a $22,574 spread that is entirely a function of when shares actually deliver and at what price. Knowing the cliff date and any clawback window is not a formality; it determines whether the equity is real compensation in year one or deferred risk.
3
What change-of-control acceleration applies to unvested RSUs — single-trigger, double-trigger, or none — and can you provide the actual plan document rather than a recruiter summary?
Lilly completed the AtaiBeckley acquisition on September 11, 2026, and announced the Merida Biosciences deal on August 31, 2026 — two transactions in two weeks. That pace of business development, combined with 47.7% revenue growth over the twelve months ending June 2026, makes Lilly an acquirer, not an acquisition target, but the question cuts both ways: if your therapeutic area is ever divested or restructured, the acceleration provision in your RSU plan document determines whether unvested shares accelerate or simply lapse. The recruiter's verbal summary is not the governing document. Ask for the plan text.
4
What is the equity refresh cadence at the P4 level — are annual RSU grants made, and on what performance or tenure criteria — and what has the typical refresh grant looked like for Principal MSLs in the last two grant cycles?
Your $60,000 RSU grant vests over three years, which means the grant's value at delivery depends heavily on whether you receive additional equity before the initial grant is fully vested. LLY stock carries annualized volatility of 36% and a current drawdown of -10.7% from its recent high, so the spread between the bear ($49,346) and bull ($78,744) scenario on the initial grant alone is nearly $30,000. A refresh grant in year two or three changes the math materially. Ask how this cadence compares to what the team has actually delivered at this level — not what the plan permits in theory.

Dealbreakers to watch

Insider Selling Pattern Across Multiple Named Officers
medium
In the trailing 90 days, 3 distinct insiders executed 3 open-market sell trades totaling 13,500 shares (~$15.96M) with zero open-market buys recorded. The COMPUTED METRICS signal rates this pattern as sustained_selling, strength moderate. The named sellers include the General Counsel (Hakim), a Senior VP of Finance (Zakrowski), and the President of Lilly International (Jonsson) — all classified as opportunistic_sell. No single insider sale is disqualifying at a company of this scale, but the breadth across three officers in one 90-day window is worth tracking. Ask your recruiter or a financial advisor whether any company-wide trading window or 10b5-1 plan context explains the timing before you treat your $60,000 RSU grant as a stable baseline.
Source ↗ · Form 4 filings, SEC EDGAR (LLY), trailing 90 days; insider_classification signals: Hakim Anat, Zakrowski Donald A, Jonsson Patrik — opportunistic_sell
Stock Volatility and Recent Drawdown Compress RSU Upside
medium
Your $60,000 RSU grant carries meaningful price risk: annualized volatility is 36% and the stock is currently in a -10.7% drawdown from its recent peak, sitting at $1,142.94. The bear-case equity scenario (analyst low target of $940/share) values your grant at $49,346 — a $10,654 reduction from the grant-date value. The bull case ($1,500/share) reaches $78,744. That $29,398 spread between bear and bull is wider than many candidates expect from a mega-cap pharma name. Separately, a 24/7 Wall Street headline from September 14, 2026 noted the stock "fell like a rock over the last month," consistent with the current drawdown figure. Ask specifically about equity refresh cadence and whether the grant is priced at start date or grant date, since a continued drawdown between your October 1 start and the actual grant date could reduce the realized value further.
Source ↗ · COMPUTED METRICS: stock 12mo +51.1%, annualized volatility 36%, max drawdown -23.3%, current drawdown -10.7%; equity scenarios bear $49,346 / base $71,920 / bull $78,744; 24/7 Wall Street, 2026-09-14
Employer Coverage Pressure on GLP-1 Drugs Could Affect MSL Field Priorities
low
Real-time signals from August 2026 indicate some large U.S. employers are planning to drop or limit weight-loss drug coverage starting 2027, citing cost. Lilly's incretin franchise (Mounjaro, Zepbound) is the primary revenue engine — Q2 2026 U.S. revenue grew 33% year-over-year, and the obesity incretin market grew 78% in the same period. If employer coverage retracts meaningfully, field medical priorities and MSL deployment could shift, potentially affecting your therapeutic area focus or territory scope. This is not a near-term business risk given Lilly's raised FY2026 guidance of $85–87 billion, but it is worth asking during onboarding how the medical affairs team is planning for payer and employer access headwinds in 2027 and beyond.
Source ↗ · Real-time signals: TipRanks coverage, August 2026; Lilly Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 5, 2026) — U.S. revenue +33%, obesity incretin market +78%; FY2026 guidance raised to $85–87B
Acquisition Activity Adds Pipeline Complexity and Integration Uncertainty
low
Lilly completed the AtaiBeckley acquisition (neuroplastogens for treatment-resistant depression) on September 11, 2026 — three weeks before your anticipated October 1 start — and announced a definitive agreement to acquire Merida Biosciences (autoimmune/allergic disease) on August 31, 2026. Both deals expand Lilly's therapeutic footprint into neuroscience and immunology, two of the six stated investment areas. For a Principal MSL, the practical question is whether your role sits in an established franchise (cardiometabolic, oncology) or could be redeployed toward a newly integrated asset. Ask your hiring manager how the medical affairs org maps to the newly acquired pipelines and whether your P4 scope is expected to remain stable or expand to cover integration-related field medical needs.
Source ↗ · Lilly press release: AtaiBeckley acquisition completed September 11, 2026 (PRNewswire); Merida Biosciences acquisition announced August 31, 2026 (PRNewswire)

Canonical action signals

Highest leverage asks

Evidence confidence: medium

Questions they cannot fake

What is the annual target bonus percentage for a P4 Principal MSL, and what did the bonus actually pay out at — as a percentage of target — for fiscal years 2024 and 2025? Why: Your offer letter carries a $190,000 base but no bonus target, so the headline package of $275,000 (base plus equity plus signing) is the floor, not the ceiling. At Lilly, the FY2025 proxy shows named executives receiving incentive plan payouts ranging from roughly 218% of base salary (Hakim, Montarce) to 383% (Ricks) — all well above a nominal target — which tells you the plan can pay generously but says nothing about the P4 band. Until you have the actual target percentage and two years of realized payout history, you cannot model what your total cash looks like in a normal year versus a strong one. That number belongs in your negotiation before you sign.

Evidence confidence: medium

What vesting cliff applies to the $60,000 RSU grant — is there a one-year cliff before any shares deliver, and if so, what happens to unvested equity if the role is eliminated or the position is restructured before that date? Why: The offer specifies a three-year vest on $60,000 in RSUs, but the cliff schedule, clawback terms, and any repayment window were not collected in the offer materials. At LLY's current price of $1,142.94, the bear-case scenario on that grant values it at $49,346 (at the analyst low of $940) and the base case at $71,920 (at the analyst median of $1,370) — a $22,574 spread that is entirely a function of when shares actually deliver and at what price. Knowing the cliff date and any clawback window is not a formality; it determines whether the equity is real compensation in year one or deferred risk.

Evidence confidence: medium

What change-of-control acceleration applies to unvested RSUs — single-trigger, double-trigger, or none — and can you provide the actual plan document rather than a recruiter summary? Why: Lilly completed the AtaiBeckley acquisition on September 11, 2026, and announced the Merida Biosciences deal on August 31, 2026 — two transactions in two weeks. That pace of business development, combined with 47.7% revenue growth over the twelve months ending June 2026, makes Lilly an acquirer, not an acquisition target, but the question cuts both ways: if your therapeutic area is ever divested or restructured, the acceleration provision in your RSU plan document determines whether unvested shares accelerate or simply lapse. The recruiter's verbal summary is not the governing document. Ask for the plan text.

Evidence confidence: medium

If you regret this in 18 months

Evidence confidence: medium

Early warning signals

Evidence confidence: medium

Not available for this run: exit terms on the public record. Every stream we checked — rendered, held, or absent — is itemized in the appendix coverage matrix.

Purchase your report to unlock full details

Live SEC filings, peer comp, scripts, provenance, and canonical synthesis — built for your company and offer.

Get the Offer Brief — $49 Compare both brief tiers

What this brief covers — and what it can’t

Covered, with receipts

Public-company evidence: financial health and trajectory, leadership and board signals, role-level exposure (restructuring filings, WARN notices), the citable market wage band, insider filing patterns, and the negotiation math built from them.

Not in public filings

Your future manager and team, day-to-day culture, benefit terms the filings don’t carry (the 401k match formula, PTO, parental leave, healthcare costs), and private-company comparisons. Where a DOL Form 5500 filing matched, the plan-level 401k facts appear above — the day-to-day terms still don’t. That’s what the verification questions in §6 are for — ask them before you sign.

Appendix

Evidence and methodology

The main brief stays readable; the supporting facts, confidence map, source logs, methodology, and export preview live here for auditability.

Supporting facts

Form 4 rows examined

100

Validated 8-K transition rows

Validation issues

Confidence and data gaps

55% of the trajectory weighting is not evidence-backed (30% renormalized out of the composite, 25% scored on a neutral prior).

Sources cross-referenced

SEC filings analyzed · 10-K/Q, 8-K, proxy

Transcript & filing facts

100

Form 4 insider rows

Leadership / board records

Layoff / WARN signals

152

Records cited · total

Data coverage

This tracks whether available evidence is rendered, held for methodology, gated by confidence, or unavailable.

Canonical verdict and one-number model

Rendered

Canonical

Rendered in the executive decision screen.

Canonical section claims

Rendered

Canonical · 44 items

Rendered across the guided chapters as concise evidence cards.

Supporting facts and methodology notes

Appendix Only

Canonical · 32 items

Kept in the appendix so the main report stays readable.

Revenue product and geographic segmentation

Rendered

Fetched · 7 items

Top segments are rendered in Company Quality; full rows remain source data.

Analyst estimates, grades, DCF, targets, earnings

Rendered

Fetched

Rendered as market-consensus cards instead of raw analyst feeds.

News, press releases, and M&A events

Rendered

Fetched · 6 items

Material recent events are summarized; raw feed clutter is omitted from the main flow.

Ownership concentration and financial health scores

Rendered

Fetched

Rendered in Role and Career Risk when it changes the risk read.

Career signal layer leadership and board coverage

Rendered

Computed

Rendered as leadership tape, coverage note, and board count.

O*NET, BEA, WARN, SEC facts, lobbying, USAspending, FEC

Rendered

Open Data · 5 items

Verified public-data facts are rendered through canonical claims and the evidence appendix.

Evidence appendix

Evidence behind the dossier: supporting facts, methodology, confidence rationale, filing logs, and exportable rows. Empty sections describe what was reviewed rather than silently disappearing.

Facts

100

Insider records

8-K records

Validation issues

What those validation issues are

7 findings from the seal-time checks; 7 advisory (the brief ships and a human reviews). Anything that could make a claim untrue blocks the seal and never reaches this page.

The same sentence appears several times across the brief — a readability note, not a factual one.
A figure is restated more often than this brief's editorial rules allow — a readability note, not a factual one.

Supporting facts(32)

Quarterly revenue (Q1 FY2025): $12728.5M.
Company financial statements · high confidence · Q1 FY2025
Quarterly revenue (Q2 FY2025): $15557.7M.
Company financial statements · high confidence · Q2 FY2025
Quarterly revenue (Q3 FY2025): $17600.8M.
Company financial statements · high confidence · Q3 FY2025
Quarterly revenue (Q4 FY2025): $19292.0M.
Company financial statements · high confidence · Q4 FY2025
Quarterly revenue (Q1 FY2026): $19799.0M.
Company financial statements · high confidence · Q1 FY2026
Rule of 40 score: 94.2. Revenue growth 47.7% + FCF margin 46.5%.
Computed market metrics · high confidence · 2026-09-14T17:04:39.233Z
Revenue per employee: $1593K (+40.6% YoY).
Computed market metrics · medium confidence · 2026-09-14T17:04:39.233Z
Insider activity (90d): 3 open-market sell trades by 3 distinct sellers — 13,500 shares ≈ $15.96M, filed as 3 per-price fill rows, 0 open-market buy trades, sell share of trades 100%. Excluded as non-discretionary: 10 equity awards, 1 tax-withholding, 3 gifts. Pattern: sustained_selling. Signal: negative (moderate).
Form 4 insider activity · medium confidence · 2026-09-14T17:06:58.400Z
Equity scenario base case: analyst median implies $71,920 for the supplied grant.
Equity scenario model · high confidence · 2026-09-14T17:04:39.233Z
12-month stock risk: annualized volatility 36%, max drawdown -23.3%, current drawdown -10.7%.
Historical price model · high confidence · 2026-09-14T17:04:39.233Z
Carolyn R. Bertozzi hire: Board Member.
SEC 8-K leadership event · medium confidence · 2025-12-08
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947825000271/lly-20251118.htm
Board: 12 directors (11 of 12 independent).
Proxy statement board record · medium confidence · 2026
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000029/lly-20260317.htm
SEC filing: 4 filed 2026-09-11 00:00:00.
SEC filing index · medium confidence · 2026-09-11 00:00:00
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000203208926000004/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1789157763.xml
SEC filing: 3/A filed 2026-09-04 00:00:00.
SEC filing index · medium confidence · 2026-09-04 00:00:00
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000209688826000006/xslF345X06/wk-form3a_1788553319.xml
SEC filing: 4 filed 2026-09-04 00:00:00.
SEC filing index · medium confidence · 2026-09-04 00:00:00
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000186105226000006/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1788553126.xml
Strategic coherence: 75/100 (Strong). The focus on pipeline advancement and new market strategies suggests growth opportunities, but attention to pricing pressures and competition is necessary.
Earnings call transcript · high confidence · 2026-09-14T17:06:58.400Z
Lobbying exposure: $15.94M reported over 53 filings. Top issues: HCR, MMM, TRD, PHA, CPT.
Public lobbying disclosure · medium confidence · 2026-09-14T17:06:58.400Z
Federal contract exposure: $0.28M obligated across 2 awards. Top agencies: Department of Veterans Affairs.
Federal contract disclosure · medium confidence · 2026-09-14T17:06:58.400Z
Seymour Melissa: opportunistic_sell (negative).
Insider activity classification · medium confidence · 2026-08-01
Hakim Anat: opportunistic_sell (negative).
Insider activity classification · medium confidence · 2026-08-07

Confidence map(8)

comp_reality · high Section has source-backed facts available.
leverage · medium Section has source-backed facts available.
leadership_stability · medium 8-K transition scan is stale; absence of transitions should not be interpreted as stability.
three_questions · medium Section has source-backed facts available.
counterfactual · low Counterfactual recommender needs alumni outcomes and peer score generation.
five_year_forecast · low No released career-path aggregate buckets for this role family; the reference class here is public only — market peers and SEC leadership transitions.
organizational_diagnosis · medium Section has source-backed facts available.
red_flags · medium Section has source-backed facts available.

Methodology(11)

Trajectory Score weights organizational health, leadership stability, strategic coherence, alumni outcomes, promotion velocity, skills marketability, and role-specific risk.
One Number model varies by report mode: NPV for offer evaluation, EV delta for stay-or-go, trajectory percentile for job seekers, CCVI for career trajectory.
Public-source leadership signals come from SEC 8-K and DEF 14A records when available.
Leadership coverage: stale. Leadership=ready, board=ready, transitions=stale. 12 leadership roles, 12 directors, 1 transition record.
Ticker: LLY. Company: Eli Lilly and Company.
Offer inputs: base $190,000, signing $25,000, equity $60,000.
No user-contributed tenure aggregates available.
Career-path aggregates use optional user contributions; this report scores public filings only.
Cross-section findings are AI-generated from assembled Tier 2 data and validated for multi-section citation.
Pre-mortem output was generated by Footnote's structured risk model.
Insider sentiment aggregate was not available for this ticker.

8-K leadership log(1)

[
  {
    "new_role": "Board Member",
    "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947825000271/lly-20251118.htm",
    "former_role": null,
    "person_name": "Carolyn R. Bertozzi",
    "source_quote": "elected Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D as a new member of the Board, effective December 8, 2025",
    "effective_date": "2025-12-08",
    "prior_employer": "Stanford University",
    "transition_type": "hire"
  }
]

Insider trading log(100)

[
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000203208926000004/0002032089-26-000004-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-09-11",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, Global Quality",
    "reportingCik": "0002032089",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Seymour Melissa",
    "securitiesOwned": 1050.373,
    "transactionDate": "2025-09-22",
    "transactionType": "G-Gift",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 17,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000203208926000004/0002032089-26-000004-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-09-11",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, Global Quality",
    "reportingCik": "0002032089",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Seymour Melissa",
    "securitiesOwned": 1038.373,
    "transactionDate": "2026-09-09",
    "transactionType": "G-Gift",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 12,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000209688826000006/0002096888-26-000006-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "3/A",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-09-04",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP,  President LLY Imm",
    "reportingCik": "0002096888",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Brown Adrienne S",
    "securitiesOwned": 7045.237,
    "transactionDate": "2025-11-07",
    "transactionType": "",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 0,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": ""
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000186105226000006/0001861052-26-000006-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-09-04",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations",
    "reportingCik": "0001861052",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Hernandez Edgardo",
    "securitiesOwned": 46082.717,
    "transactionDate": "2026-09-02",
    "transactionType": "G-Gift",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 13,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000195597226000008/0001955972-26-000008-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-09-04",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, Chief People Officer",
    "reportingCik": "0001955972",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Dozier Eric",
    "securitiesOwned": 14239.212,
    "transactionDate": "2026-09-02",
    "transactionType": "G-Gift",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 216,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000126238826000016/0001262388-26-000016-index.htm",
    "price": 1183.16,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-18",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001262388",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Sulzberger Gabrielle",
    "securitiesOwned": 3003.9096,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-17",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 4.1908,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000087/0000059478-26-000087-index.htm",
    "price": 1183.16,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-18",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001455792",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "LUCIANO JUAN R",
    "securitiesOwned": 16918.0448,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-17",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 13.4527,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000085/0000059478-26-000085-index.htm",
    "price": 1183.16,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-18",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001343564",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Fyrwald J Erik",
    "securitiesOwned": 75418.1248,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-17",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 8.3815,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000131021526000015/0001310215-26-000015-index.htm",
    "price": 1183.16,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-18",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001310215",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Alvarez Ralph",
    "securitiesOwned": 55744.788,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-17",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 10.4945,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000178605426000006/0001786054-26-000006-index.htm",
    "price": 1175.1,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-18",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP & President, LLY Int'l",
    "reportingCik": "0001786054",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Jonsson Patrik",
    "securitiesOwned": 54146.62,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-17",
    "transactionType": "S-Sale",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 6500,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000083/0000059478-26-000083-index.htm",
    "price": 1185.01,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-11",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: SVP, Finance, & CAO",
    "reportingCik": "0001561539",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Zakrowski Donald A",
    "securitiesOwned": 1525.89,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-10",
    "transactionType": "S-Sale",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 2000,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000168555626000006/0001685556-26-000006-index.htm",
    "price": 1190,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-10",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, GC & Secretary",
    "reportingCik": "0001685556",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Hakim Anat",
    "securitiesOwned": 11875,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-07",
    "transactionType": "S-Sale",
    "directOrIndirect": "I",
    "securitiesTransacted": 5000,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000203208926000002/0002032089-26-000002-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-03",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, Global Quality",
    "reportingCik": "0002032089",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Seymour Melissa",
    "securitiesOwned": 1506.08,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-01",
    "transactionType": "M-Exempt",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 981,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000203208926000002/0002032089-26-000002-index.htm",
    "price": 1148.84,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-03",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, Global Quality",
    "reportingCik": "0002032089",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Seymour Melissa",
    "securitiesOwned": 1067.373,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-01",
    "transactionType": "F-InKind",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 438.707,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000203208926000002/0002032089-26-000002-index.htm",
    "price": 0,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-08-03",
    "typeOfOwner": "officer: EVP, Global Quality",
    "reportingCik": "0002032089",
    "securityName": "Restricted Stock Unit",
    "reportingName": "Seymour Melissa",
    "securitiesOwned": 952,
    "transactionDate": "2026-08-01",
    "transactionType": "M-Exempt",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 981,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "D"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000126238826000014/0001262388-26-000014-index.htm",
    "price": 1146.9,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-07-21",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001262388",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Sulzberger Gabrielle",
    "securitiesOwned": 2999.7188,
    "transactionDate": "2026-07-20",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 4.3232,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000068/0000059478-26-000068-index.htm",
    "price": 1146.9,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-07-21",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001455792",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "LUCIANO JUAN R",
    "securitiesOwned": 16904.5921,
    "transactionDate": "2026-07-20",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 13.878,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000066/0000059478-26-000066-index.htm",
    "price": 1146.9,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-07-21",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001343564",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Fyrwald J Erik",
    "securitiesOwned": 75409.7433,
    "transactionDate": "2026-07-20",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 8.6465,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000131021526000013/0001310215-26-000013-index.htm",
    "price": 1146.9,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-07-21",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001310215",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Alvarez Ralph",
    "securitiesOwned": 55734.2935,
    "transactionDate": "2026-07-20",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 10.8263,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  },
  {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000126238826000012/0001262388-26-000012-index.htm",
    "price": 1129.35,
    "symbol": "LLY",
    "formType": "4",
    "companyCik": "0000059478",
    "filingDate": "2026-06-16",
    "typeOfOwner": "director",
    "reportingCik": "0001262388",
    "securityName": "Common Stock",
    "reportingName": "Sulzberger Gabrielle",
    "securitiesOwned": 2995.3956,
    "transactionDate": "2026-06-15",
    "transactionType": "A-Award",
    "directOrIndirect": "D",
    "securitiesTransacted": 4.3904,
    "acquisitionOrDisposition": "A"
  }
]

Transcript pull(6)

“Broaden impact on cardiometabolic health · Expand presence in other therapeutic areas · Invest to drive future growth”
Investment priority
“We expect regulatory action later this year.”
Stated risk · Regulatory Approval Delays
“We see that those patients are actually naive to treatment with incretin and patients are titrating up steadily.”
Stated risk · Market Competition
“We remain focused on executing the 3 components of our strategy to deliver sustained long-term growth, broaden our impact on cardiometabolic health.”
Investment priority · Cardiometabolic Health
“We believe Jaypirca has the potential to be a foundational therapy across multiple settings and regimens within CLL.”
Investment priority · Oncology
“We're excited about sleep-wake disorders with Centessa and then diseases like addiction, major depressive disorder.”
Investment priority · Neuroscience

Glossary(4)

8-K: SEC current report used for material company events, including executive appointments and departures.
DEF 14A: Definitive proxy statement containing board, governance, and executive disclosure.
Trajectory Score: Footnote's 0-100 estimate of career value and risk for a role/company decision.
K-anonymity: Privacy threshold that suppresses aggregate user-contributed metrics until enough contributors exist.

Export preview

CSV preview — first 10 rows of 32, exactly as the download serializes them.

id,claim,value,source_type,confidence
fact_001,Quarterly revenue (Q1 FY2025): $12728.5M.,12728500000,fmp_financials,high
fact_002,Quarterly revenue (Q2 FY2025): $15557.7M.,15557700000,fmp_financials,high
fact_003,Quarterly revenue (Q3 FY2025): $17600.8M.,17600800000,fmp_financials,high
fact_004,Quarterly revenue (Q4 FY2025): $19292.0M.,19292000000,fmp_financials,high
fact_005,Quarterly revenue (Q1 FY2026): $19799.0M.,19799000000,fmp_financials,high
fact_006,Rule of 40 score: 94.2. Revenue growth 47.7% + FCF margin 46.5%.,94.2,derived_fmp,high
fact_007,Revenue per employee: $1593K (+40.6% YoY).,1593316,derived_fmp,medium
fact_008,"Insider activity (90d): 3 open-market sell trades by 3 distinct sellers — 13,500 shares ≈ $15.96M, filed as 3 per-price fill rows, 0 open-market buy trades, sell share of trades 100%. Excluded as non-discretionary: 10 equity awards, 1 tax-withholding, 3 gifts. Pattern: sustained_selling. Signal: negative (moderate).",1,fmp_insider_trading,medium
fact_009,"Equity scenario base case: analyst median implies $71,920 for the supplied grant.",71920,derived_equity_scenario,high
fact_010,"12-month stock risk: annualized volatility 36%, max drawdown -23.3%, current drawdown -10.7%.",'-23.3,derived_price_history,high

JSON export contents (keys): facts, sections